The Economy- Notes of an agitator 8/8/2011

I predicted in writing  a “coming crisis” in 1999 regarding the devaluation of stock price to earnings ratio i.e. return on shares. In 2003, I published this prediction orally at trade union meetings. I have  spoken out since 1990 about the falling capital to loan ratio as being necessary in Ireland. I predicted-on the record-“the worst economic recession since the 1930’s” in 2003 at my trade union meeting (ATGWU/UNITE).

 Was I right or was I wrong?

 Let us examine what happened.

In the 1990’s, America had about fifth of world industrial output and dominated as it still does the inventory of new patents. It ran a budget surplus. China had about one fiftieth of world industrial production(Employment in Europe,European Commission,1989). US indebtedness, as President Obama says, was due to fighting expensive wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and cutting taxes and not paying for the wars other than through indebtedness. The US has recently extended indebtedness by two trillion dollars to 14.3 trillion dollars. The Chinese today produce fourteen percent of world industrial output,equivalent to the US. Obama says that there must be tax rises in the face of trenchant opposition in the Senate.

What I got wrong in 1999 was a failure to foresee US borrowing at a frenetic pace. A recession normally falls every eight to ten years in the world economy, lasting for two years. US debt accumulation and the devilish, inflationary, house- building mania delayed the onset of recession until 2008.

It is the deepest crisis since the Second World War in Britain, Ireland and the US. However, US employment figures are up (August 2011) and Britain has recorded over half a million new manufacturing jobs since the Conservatives came to power in May 2010. Britain has also shed a quarter of a million of the two million public service jobs which were created from 2007 to 2009 by Gordon Brown. That employment was unnecessary and wasteful.

Is the recession coming to an end? Yes, emphatically, yes! Manufacturing is the way forward. Britain, Ireland and the US are pursuing the proper course.

The German economy is not what it appears. People are mired in uncertainty, unhappiness, a bloated bureaucracy and pessimism about the future because of The Contraceptive Mentality which is choking off growing demand for houses, goods and services. The reality behind the rhetoric- and I’ve got it right, not like professional government spin doctors- a growing population equals a growing demand for houses and goods equals falling unemployment equals an accumulator effect equals growing trade equals growing prosperity.

Therefore we must protect the family and the unborn. They are our future!

I have been to Germany and I have seen the abandoned factories, workshops, residential areas, schools and social facilities. I know.

 The unborn child is ,according to God's message to Abraham ,our hope and the hope of humanity.China, take note!